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A Moment with Alex


I don't know about you, but I remain confident the nation's economy, along with the whole real estate industry, will start to turn around in 2010 - even though a barrage of statistics says it won't happen until 2012, at least.

First, some basic history notations.

Keep in mind, The Great Depression of the 1930s effectively lasted for 12 years.  It ran from the start of The Great Wall Street Crash of October 1929 until the U.S. entered World War II after the Dec. 7, 1941 Pearl Harbor attack by Japan.  Four days later, on Dec. 11, Hitler declared war on the U.S.

The Great Depression was the worst economic period in the 20th Century.

Many Talking TV Heads, however, will argue the 1930s Depression began to improve by 1936.  I respectively disagree.  Not until there was 100 percent wartime employment in the early 1940s did The Great Depression begin to disappear.

New and plentiful jobs erased The Great Depression.

More recent economic fires came with the oil crisis and the inflationary period of 1974 to 1975.

Then arrived the inflation-busting period of 1979 to 1982.  Property interest rates climbed to 23 percent. (Some credit-card companies today are charging over 30 percent on certain accounts.)

After the 1979 to 1982 crisis, came the Savings & Loan debacle of 1989 to 1992.  Then the slowdown of 2000 to 2002 surfaced.

And finally, the 2005 Real Estate Bubble burst in June 2007, by my accounting.  I also flag that date as the start of our Current Depression.   We are now into the 30th month, or about 21/2 years of the Current Depression.

The Talking TV Heads are trying to convince us the Current Depression has turned the corner and greener pastures are just ahead.

It sounds encouraging and psychologically uplifting, but don't fall for that line, my friends.  It just isn't so.

Here is what I see in my clouded crystal ball:




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