According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2019 Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast, steady U.S. commercial real estate markets, along with equity and debt availability, are expected to keep commercial and multifamily mortgage originations roughly on par with the volumes seen the last two years.
MBA projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations to total $530 billion in 2019 - essentially flat from last year's volume of $526 billion, and the record $530 billion in 2017. Mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages are forecast to rise 1 percent this year to $264 billion, with total multifamily lending at $315 billion. MBA expects these originations totals to continue through 2020.
"We expect commercial mortgage borrowing and lending to remain near current levels in the coming years," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President for Commercial Real Estate Research. "Slowing global and domestic growth may have an impact on overall demand, but readily available equity and debt for commercial real estate should support transaction volumes. Moderation in property value growth and sustained net operating income (NOI) increases will likely extend the recent plateauing in transaction activity."
Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2019, ending the year up 5 percent from 2018.
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