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Don't Look for Mid-Term Elections to Aid U.S. Property  Market

Don't Look for Mid-Term Elections to Aid U.S. Property Market


The Nov. 4 mid-term national elections are not expected to either boost or hurt the state of the current economy and more importantly, the nation's sagging housing industry.
 
For the most part, it will be business as usual on Wall Street, on Main Street and in the real estate industry.
 
That's the view of a horde of social media pundits, even if the Republican Party dominates the mid-term elections and the Democrats get swamped. The entire House of Representatives and 36 Senate seats are on the ballot.
 
In a nutshell, here are some possible affects if the GOP winds up controlling both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives:
 
Housing - Foreclosures are expected to continue to increase in numerous states.  No magic wand here.
 
Commercial real estate - Might benefit a little if the GOP can get regulators to ease up on some thorny regulatory issues in the industry.
 
Construction - Expected to get a slight boost even with a lackadaisical residential sales market.
 
Stocks - Election results are not expected to be a big market mover. But stocks likely will rise quickly after the election results are announced but then settle back to a near-normal level over the next 30 days. The market will continue to be volatile as the year ends.
 
Small business - Could benefit if the Republicans succeed in pushing through new tax reform measures. But don't bet the farm on it just yet.
 
Energy, defense and medical devices sectors - In line for more favorable tax treatment if the GOP calls the shots.  Elimination of the 2.3 percent tax on sales of medical devices, as part of the Affordable Care Act, could help stocks of the medical device makers.
 
Natural gas, oil exports, energy stocks - All backed strongly by the GOP.
 
Coal - This industry would be pleased if Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell returns as the Senate majority leader.
 
Tax and regulatory reform - High on the Republican's to-do list.
 
Obamacare or Health Care - Even in victory, the GOP would fail to kill President Barack Obama's landmark legislation. The President would veto any such move. To override the veto, the Grand Old Party would need 67 votes in the 100-seat Senate, a highly unlikely attainment.
 
Ebola - Barring visitors from certain African nations struck by the Ebola virus to enter the U.S. under any circumstances will also fail, as individual legislators continue to press for such action.
 
Global economy - European and Asian economies are not expected to feel any immediate movement, up or down, from the Nov. 4 election results. But there could be near-future symptoms surfacing as the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections kick into high gear in 2015.
 
Keystone Oil Pipeline - With a Senate win, Congress will start the ball rolling on this huge international project. The administration has held off approving the controversial pipeline which would take Canadian crude to the refineries on the Gulf Coast.
 
Pacific trade deal - Would go forward if the GOP controls both houses. Democrats oppose the deal that could allow U.S. energy exports, like liquefied natural gas and ultimately even oil, to flow into new markets in Asia.
 
There you have it. 
 
This column's prediction:  Even with a strong Republican win Nov. 4, the Congress will continue to be mostly a lame duck - waiting for the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election. 
 
 
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