Real Estate Analyst Wins Nobel Prize

Real Estate Analyst Wins Nobel Prize

Residential News » North America Residential News Edition | By WPJ Staff | October 14, 2013 10:28 AM ET

Yale University professor Robert Shiller, whose name is synonymous with the index tracking the U.S. home market, was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics today.

Mr. Shiller, one of the founders of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, was joined as recipients of the prize by University of Chicago professors Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen.

The trio was honored for their work on forecasting the value of assets, primarily stocks and bonds, over a long period of time.

But in the real estate world, Mr. Shiller is best known for the monthly index, which has developed as one of the key barometers of the U.S. housing market performance.

Mr. Shiller famously predicted the housing collapse before 2008. He also forecast the dot-com bubble.

But the Nobel committee rewarded Mr. Shiller for his work analyzing the fluctuations of assets and dividents.

"He found that stock prices fluctuate much more than corporate dividends, and that the ratio of prices to dividends tends to fall when it is high, and to increase when it is low," the Nobel committee said. "This pattern holds not only for stocks, but also for bonds and other assets."

Mr. Shiller told a press conference via phone that his initial reaction to the news was "disbelief."

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