Real Estate News
Canadian Real Estate Outlook: Which Markets to Watch in 2027
The Canadian housing market enters 2027 in the middle of a slow recovery from the 2024-2026 correction. National sales are forecast to climb 2.1% to roughly 485,071 units in 2027, and the national average price is expected to nudge up 0.9% from 2026 to $695,094. Those numbers hide a sharp regional split. Alberta and Saskatchewan remain seller's markets with rising prices, Ontario and British Columbia are still working through inventory overhangs, and Quebec is running well above the national pace. The interesting markets in 2027 are not the largest ones.
A buyer or investor reading the 2027 outlook should be paying attention to where supply is constrained, where the macro tailwinds align, and where mortgage renewals are likely to push more inventory onto the market. The five markets below cover the main bands.
The CREA Forecast Baseline
The Canadian Real Estate Association's most recent forecast set 2026 national sales at 474,972 units (+1% over 2025) and pushed the national average price to $688,955 (+1.5%). The 2027 update penciled in another modest gain. The numbers carry meaningful uncertainty. CREA flagged trade tensions, oil price volatility, and an unresolved federal immigration policy pivot as the main wildcards, and an oil shock in early 2026 prompted a downward revision from the prior forecast.
The macro picture is one of stabilization without acceleration. Most provinces are forecast to see price gains held below inflation in 2027.
Alberta as the National Tightest Market
Alberta entered 2026 with 2.8 months of supply, the tightest provincial inventory in the country. Calgary tightened back into seller's market territory in March 2026 after a brief pause, with an average price of $641,844 essentially flat year-over-year and a benchmark of $565,600. Edmonton's average climbed 2.2% to $470,819, with inventory still well below 2024 levels. Both cities continue to absorb out-of-province migration from Ontario and B.C.
The 2027 case for Alberta rests on three things: continued in-migration from higher-cost provinces, a strong oil-and-gas economy supporting household income, and a multi-year supply shortage that new construction has not closed. The risk is an oil price reversal, which would soften both the migration story and the income story.
Toronto and Vancouver in Recovery Mode
Toronto and Vancouver are expected to post 3% to 4% price declines in 2026 before stabilizing in 2027. The recovery hinges on rate cuts that have not yet materialized and an inventory absorption process that is taking longer than the 2024 forecasts assumed. CREA downgraded its 2026 forecast in April 2026 specifically because of the oil shock and tariff uncertainty.
For 2027, the consensus is that Toronto and Vancouver will outperform their 2026 floors but underperform the national average. Sales growth is expected to slow further in Vancouver and Victoria into 2028 due to demographic headwinds and the lingering price-to-income gap.
Edmonton Listing Filters in a Tight Market
Edmonton enters 2027 with rising sales, tightening inventory, and an average price near $471,000, among the lowest of any major Canadian metro. Buyers from out of province who want to position before the next leg up usually start with active inventory, then narrow by neighborhood and property type. A search of homes for sale in Edmonton returns the current listings across the city, which lets a buyer screen for entry-level detached homes in the $400,000s, mid-tier in the $600,000s, and luxury inventory above $1 million in a single pass.
Montreal and the Quebec Growth Trajectory
Quebec is the strongest provincial growth story going into 2027. Montreal's median single-family price reached $652,250 in March 2026, up 6.9% year-over-year, and the province-wide aggregate is forecast to rise 7% in the fourth quarter of 2026. Royal LePage projects Greater Montreal to hit $676,725 aggregate by year-end. Single-family detached pricing in Montreal is forecast to climb 6% to $796,908.
The Quebec market is benefiting from in-migration, a rebounding condo segment, and stronger affordability than Ontario or B.C. Montreal-area condo prices grew only 1.2% as supply normalized faster, which makes the segment a watch item for 2027 entry buyers.
Saskatchewan and the Affordability Story
Saskatchewan is the smaller version of the Alberta story. Saskatchewan inventory sits more than 45% below the 10-year average across all six economic regions, and the supply crunch has pushed Saskatoon to a record benchmark of $435,200 and Regina to a record $343,700 in March 2026. Both numbers sit well below the national benchmark of $663,828.
For 2027, Saskatchewan offers the best price-to-income ratio of any major Canadian market. The Regina average net monthly income of $3,675 against a benchmark price near $330,900 produces an affordability ratio that Toronto and Vancouver buyers find difficult to believe. The risk for the province is the same as Alberta's, with the addition of population growth that has run below the national rate.
Macroeconomic Variables in the Forecast
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% through three consecutive decisions in early 2026, and inflation is projected to ease back to the 2% target by 2027. The path of mortgage rates depends on the duration of the oil shock and on the path of trade tensions with the United States and China.
The other major variable is the mortgage renewal wave. More than one million Canadian mortgages are scheduled to renew in 2026, many of them locked in during 2021 at sub-2% rates. Payment shock could push 15% to 20% higher monthly payments on average, with some renewals seeing 25% to 40% increases. Forced selling from these renewals would add inventory to the Toronto and Vancouver markets specifically.
Investor and Buyer Implications
For buyers, the 2027 setup favors Alberta and Saskatchewan on entry pricing, Quebec on growth trajectory, and Ontario and B.C. on the patience-and-discount play if the inventory absorbs slowly. For investors, the cap rate math works best in Edmonton and Saskatoon, where rents have been rising faster than purchase prices.
The wildcard is the macro picture. A faster-than-expected rate cut cycle would lift Toronto and Vancouver disproportionately. A prolonged oil shock would soften Alberta and Saskatchewan. The forecast assumes neither extreme.
A Final Read
The 2027 Canadian market story is one of regional divergence. The national average masks a 7% growth scenario in Quebec, a tight seller's market in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and a slow recovery in the two largest urban centres. Buyers who want to act before the recovery accelerates should look hardest at the Prairie cities and Quebec. Buyers willing to wait for inventory to absorb will find Toronto and Vancouver on better terms than they have seen in five years.
