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Despite Eurozone Crisis and Earthquakes, Barcelona and Tokyo Hotel Markets to Turn Positive by 2013

Despite Eurozone Crisis and Earthquakes, Barcelona and Tokyo Hotel Markets to Turn Positive by 2013

Vacation News » Europe Vacation News Edition | By Michael Gerrity | May 29, 2012 10:00 AM ET



According to a new report by STR Global, both Barcelona's and Tokyo's hotel markets may enjoy an uptick in revenues in coming years.

"Whilst Barcelona has enjoyed positive revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth in 2011 and the first quarter (Q1) this year, the outlook shows a more balanced picture. With the current uncertainties surrounding the Euro zone, Barcelona is predicted to experience short-term RevPAR decline in 2012 before recovering slightly in 2013", commented Elizabeth Randall, managing director at STR Global. "On the other hand, we are pleased to see double-digit RevPAR growth forecasted until the end of this year as Japan's economy and market rebound from the 2011 tsunami and earthquake".

Tokyo's outlook for 2012 is positive, with RevPAR growth expected to increase by 13.9 percent year on year, led by both occupancy and rate growth. This is coming off weaker results in 2011. Tokyo achieved occupancy of 71.5 percent (-9.7 percent) in Q1 2011. In Q2 of 2011, the occupancy rate following the earthquake dropped by 21.1 percent before stabilizing again during the remaining last two quarters of the year. Overall in 2011, the average daily rate (ADR) declined by 6.7 percent to JPY 13,195.13. During the first quarter of 2012, occupancy grew by 11.1 percent to 79.5 percent whilst ADR remained slightly below the previous year (-0.3 percent).

Looking forward, whilst occupancy will continue to be positive in 2013, RevPAR will be driven mainly by ADR growth. The future performance of hotels will be determined by the ability of the Japanese economy to overcome the challenges coming from the reconstruction in the regions affected by the tsunami and the global economic environment.

Quarterly Occupancy Q1 2011 to Q3 2012F

str-globalQuarterly-Occupancy-Q1-2011-to-Q3-2012F.jpg

Barcelona's outlook shows only slight changes in performance for this and next year. This follows stronger growth in 2011, when Barcelona saw RevPAR performance grow by 8.5 percent to €81.68. Growth was led by increased occupancy (+4.5 percent) and rate (+3.8 percent). Whilst the economic forecast in the Euro zone remains uncertain, our forecast predicts that RevPAR will decline (-0.7 percent) in 2012 before recovering in 2013 (+0.8 percent). In 2012 RevPAR is predicted to be led by decreasing occupancy (-1.0 percent), whilst in 2013 rate and occupancy are expected to stay almost flat against 2012. The positive outlook in 2013 is boosted by MICE business, which is expected to host several high-profile events in Barcelona. This will be a relief  from less optimistic economic news, according to the Tourism Economics forecast issued in April, with GDP in Spain expected to contract by 1.7 percent in 2012 and further declines in 2013 by 1.5 percent.

2-year annual outlook RevPAR growth

str-global-2-year-annual-outlook-RevPAR-growth.jpg

The report is based on the latest hotel data collected by STR Global and modeled by Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, providing a 5-year hotel market outlook for the cities.



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