According to Cushman & Wakefield's EMEA corporate finance team, asset management agencies have almost €264 billion ($337 billion USD) of European non-core real estate exposure.
In a report titled European Real Estate Loan Sales Market, Cushman & Wakefield completed a thorough analysis of 10 European asset management agencies to determine their combined gross, or 'face-value', non-core real estate exposure and consequently estimate the expected levels of commercial real estate (CRE) loan and real estate owned (REO) sales in years to come.
The figures in the report relate to the face value of European CRE loans, residential mortgages and REOs held by entities which have been set up by European governments to externally receive and then liquidate the 'bad' assets of one or more national banks.
In total, European asset management agencies hold approximately €264 billion of gross non-core real estate assets, which after allowing for loan loss provisions gives a net total of approximately €173 billion ($220 billion). Overall, the asset management agencies represent around 45% of the total exposure held by all European financial entities, highlighting their significant role within both the current and future deleveraging landscape.
Frank Nickel, executive Chairman of Cushman & Wakefield's EMEA corporate finance group said, "Whilst the UK, Spain and Ireland continue to dominate the investment landscape, new geographies are beginning to attract global capital for the first time - a trend that is only set to continue with the ongoing asset quality reviews helping to facilitate the deleveraging process. However, investors will remain cautious in regards to new markets, with the country's legal system being a crucial investment factor."
Cushman & Wakefield has recorded €54.9 billion ($70 billion) of closed CRE loan and REO transactions in 2014 YTD, more than the volume completed in 2012 and 2013 combined. With a pipeline of €30.8 billion ($39 billion) in live sales and €24 billion ($30 billion) in planned disposals, the total volume for 2014 will likely break the €60 billion ($76.5 billion) mark.
"Many European banks will be forced to finally face up to the facts. If they hold troubled assets, they will be required to reclassify them in the upcoming stress tests, which in turn may cause a few capital requirement challenges. With the clear success of the Irish and Spanish asset management agencies, other European governments may follow suit in setting up asset management agencies to workout the non-core exposures", commented Federico Montero, head of Cushman & Wakefield EMEA loan sales.
Further highlights from the report include:
Nearly 40% of the total gross non-core real estate assets held by asset management agencies relates to Spain, with SAREB accountable for almost the entirety
51% of the current non-core real estate exposure of asset management agencies is secured by residential assets with a further 31% secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets
European asset management agencies have completed €96.7 billion ($123 billion) of deleveraging which equates to c.27% of the combined exposure that they received initially
Asset management agencies will remain active over the next five to 10 years with over €40 billion ($51 billion) of deleveraging expected in 2015 alone
The UK continues to dominate the market accounting for 37% of closed transactions by volume, with a further 25% and 21% relating to Spain and Ireland respectively
There has been a rise in the number of secondary sales from acquirers of 'mega-deals' and sales of banks in Q3 2014
Private equity firms continue to take center stage purchasing 76% of all European CRE loan and REO sales