Irvine, Ca based RealtyTrac recently took a big-data approach to analyzing over 32 million single family home and condo sales in the U.S. over the past 15 years. RealtyTrac compared average sale prices to average estimated market value at the time of sale to determine whether buyers paid a premium or bought at a discount.
Based on the closing date of the sale, RealtyTrac broke down the data by month, weekday and day of the year to identify when buyers historically have realized the biggest discounts. Below are high-level findings of their big data analysis.
The best month to close on the purchase of a home is October
Out of 2.7 million single family home and condo sales over the last 15 years that closed in October, buyers realized an average discount of 2.6 percent below full estimated market value at the time of sale.
Following October as best months to buy were February, July, December and January -- all fall or winter months except for July, which was a surprise given that conventional wisdom would suggest that is a good time to sell but not necessarily to buy to buy at a bargain price.
The worst month of the year to close on the purchase of a home is April, when buyers over the last 15 years have purchased at an average premium of 1.2 percent above estimated market value at the time of sale.
The best weekday to close on the purchase of a home is Monday
Out of 5.5 million single family home and condo sales over the last 15 years that closed on a Monday, buyers realized an average discount of 2.3 percent below full estimated market value at the time of sale.
Friday is the second-best weekday to close on a home purchase. Buyers who closed on Friday realized an average discount of 2.0 percent.
Thursday is the worst day of the week to buy a home, with a 1.0 percent average discount, followed by Wednesday with a 1.4 percent average discount, and Tuesday, with a 1.9 percent average discount.
The best single day of the year to close on the purchase of a home is October 8th
After removing perennial holidays such as Christmas Day, New Year's Day, Veteran's Day and July 4, our analysis found that over the past 15 years buyers who closed on the purchase of a home on Oct. 8 have realized the biggest average discount -- 10.8 percent below estimated market value at time of sale -- among any of the remaining 356 days in the year.
After Oct. 8, the best days of the year to close on a purchase of a home were Nov. 26 (10.1 percent discount), Dec. 31 (9.7 percent discount), Oct. 22 (9.6 percent discount), and Oct. 15 (9.1 percent discount).
The worst day of the year to close on a purchase of a home was Jan. 19, when buyers paid an average 9.6 percent premium above estimated market value at time of sale, followed by Feb. 16 (9.5 percent premium), Apr. 20 (9.5 percent premium), Apr. 6 (8.4 percent premium), and Apr. 27 (8.2 percent premium).
A total of 161,875 U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing during the first quarter of 2019, down 23 percent from the previous quarter and down 15 percent from a year ago to the lowest level since Q1 2008.
The average annual gross rental yield in the U.S. (annualized gross rent income divided by median purchase price of single-family homes) among the 432 counties was 8.8 percent for 2019, up from an average of 8.7 percent in 2018.
According to ATTOM Data Solution's Year-End 2018 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report, in the fourth quarter of 2018 over 14.5 million U.S. properties were equity rich -- where the combined estimated amount of loans secured by the property was 50 percent or less of the property's estimated market value.