U.S. Home Prices Forecasted to Increase 5.4 Percent in 2020
According to CoreLogic's latest Home Price Index for October 2019, U.S. home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.5% from October 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.5% in October 2019.
Home prices continue to increase on an annual basis with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicating annual price growth will increase by 5.4% from October 2019 to October 2020.
On a month-over-month basis, the forecast calls for home prices to increase by 0.2% from October 2019 to November 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
"Local home-price growth can deviate widely from the change in our U.S. index," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "While we saw prices up 3.5% nationally last year, home prices also declined in 22 metropolitan areas. Price softness occurred in some high-cost urban areas and in metros with weak employment growth during the past year."
According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country's 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 35% of metropolitan areas have an overvalued housing market as of October 2019. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. As of October 2019, 27% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 38% were at value.
When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40% were overvalued, 20% were undervalued and 40% were at value in October 2019. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% above the long-term, sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.
During the second quarter of 2019, CoreLogic, together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring consumer-housing sentiment among millennials. The survey showed that millennials are mostly unconcerned about qualifying for a mortgage. Three out of four millennials, or 75%, say they are confident they would qualify for a loan with their current financial situation. Still, despite this confidence, more than half of the cohort cites buying a home as a stressful experience, noting spending the majority of their savings as one of the leading stressors.
"Nationally, over the past year, home prices are up 3.5% with the rate of growth accelerating from September into October," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "We expect home prices to rise at least another 5% over the next 12 months. Interestingly, this persistent increase in home prices isn't deterring older millennials. In fact, 25% of those surveyed anticipate purchasing a home over the next six to eight months."