According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2019 Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast, steady U.S. commercial real estate markets, along with equity and debt availability, are expected to keep commercial and multifamily mortgage originations roughly on par with the volumes seen the last two years.
MBA projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations to total $530 billion in 2019 - essentially flat from last year's volume of $526 billion, and the record $530 billion in 2017. Mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages are forecast to rise 1 percent this year to $264 billion, with total multifamily lending at $315 billion. MBA expects these originations totals to continue through 2020.
"We expect commercial mortgage borrowing and lending to remain near current levels in the coming years," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President for Commercial Real Estate Research. "Slowing global and domestic growth may have an impact on overall demand, but readily available equity and debt for commercial real estate should support transaction volumes. Moderation in property value growth and sustained net operating income (NOI) increases will likely extend the recent plateauing in transaction activity."
Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2019, ending the year up 5 percent from 2018.
A total of 161,875 U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing during the first quarter of 2019, down 23 percent from the previous quarter and down 15 percent from a year ago to the lowest level since Q1 2008.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding quarterly report for 2018, the level of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding in the U.S. at the end of 2018 was $216 billion (6.8 percent) higher than at the end of 2017.
According to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, U.S. builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes held steady at 62 in March 2019.
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