The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations in the U.S. will increase in 2017, ending the year at $515 billion, up 5 percent from the 2016 volumes.
Yet, the MBA also expects volumes to remain at roughly that level in 2018. MBA forecasts mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages at $235 billion in 2017, with total multifamily lending at $271 billion. After strong growth in 2017, multifamily lending is expected to slow slightly in 2018.
"Commercial and multifamily markets remain strong, even as many growth measures are exhibiting a bit of a downshift," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. "Property values are up 6 percent through the first 8 months of this year. Despite a decline in property sales transactions, commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 15 percent higher during the first half of this year than a year earlier. We expect stable property markets and strong capital availability to continue to support mortgage borrowing and lending in 2018."
Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2017, ending the year roughly six percent higher than at the end of 2016.