Commercial real estate investors in the U.S. are feeling more confident this week after the Federal Reserves' fourth interest rate hike in 2018, according to global real estate consultant CBRE.
CBRE's Chairman, Americas Research and Senior Economic Advisor Spencer Levy explains the impact of yesterday's rise in the 10-year Treasury on commercial real estate investment activity with the following comments:
"The outlook for cap rates in 2019 remains favorable, as debt and equity markets are highly liquid and commercial real estate fundamentals are good (retail, office, multifamily) to strong (industrial). The Fed's softening outlook should give confidence to investors, despite strong but slowing rent growth.
"Notwithstanding some late cycle concerns, the volatility in the stock and bond markets makes commercial real estate even more attractive as a long-term capital strategy and we expect the spread between bonds and cap rates to further compress if this volatility persists. As investors seek yield, U.S. commercial real estate will remain an attractive place to deploy capital."
According to HUD, the U.S. national vacancy rate in the first quarter 2019 was 7.0 percent for rental housing and 1.4 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 7.0 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the first quarter 2018.
According to a report from the U.S. Housing and Urban Development and Commerce Department, total housing starts fell 0.3 percent in March 2019 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million units from a downwardly revised reading in February 2019.
According to Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, U.S. mortgage rates rose modestly this 2nd week of April 2019, with the 30-year fixed-rate averaging 4.12 percent. Rates moved up slightly this week while mortgage applications decreased following last week's jump in rates.
A total of 161,875 U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing during the first quarter of 2019, down 23 percent from the previous quarter and down 15 percent from a year ago to the lowest level since Q1 2008.
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