According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales increased in August 2019, a welcome rebound after a prior month of declines. Each of the four major regions reported both month-over-month growth and year-over-year gains in contract activity.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, climbed 1.6% to 107.3 in August, reversing the prior month's decrease. Year-over-year contract signings jumped 2.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity.
"It is very encouraging that buyers are responding to exceptionally low interest rates," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "The notable sales slump in the West region over recent years appears to be over. Rising demand will reaccelerate home price appreciation in the absence of more supply."
August Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown
All regional indices are up from July, with the highest gain in the West region. The PHSI in the Northeast rose 1.4% to 94.3 in August and is now 0.7% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index increased 0.6% to 101.7 in August, 0.2% higher than August 2018.
Pending home sales in the South increased 1.4% to an index of 124.4 in August, a 1.8% bump from last August. The index in the West grew 3.1% in August 2019 to 96.4, an increase of 8.0% from a year ago.
Yun noted that historically low interest rates will affect economic growth, especially home buying, going forward.
"With interest rates expected to remain low, home sales are forecasted to rise in the coming months and into 2020," said Yun. "Unfortunately, so far in 2019, new home construction is down 2.0%. The hope is that housing starts quickly move into higher gear to meet the higher demand. Moreover, broader economic growth will strengthen from increased housing activity."
The National Association of Realtors is forecasting home sales to rise 0.6% in 2019 and another 3.4% in 2020. Housing starts are predicted to increase by 2.0% in 2019 and jump an additional 10.6% in 2020, which in turn raises GDP to growth at 2.0% in 2020.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S. averaged 3.64 percent. September 2019 has been the most volatile month since March, in terms of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, averaging a weekly movement of 11 basis points.
According to global real estate consultant CBRE, there were 1,531 small U.S. property acquisitions in H1 2019, representing 36.7% of all multifamily asset purchases and revealing the scope of small asset buying.
According to Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.73 percent. This week's 30-year fixed mortgage rate increase is the largest week-to-week uptick since October 2018.
According to the National Association of Realtors, U.S. existing-home sales inched up in August 2019, marking two consecutive months of growth. Three of the four major regions reported a rise in sales, while the West recorded a decline last month.