Based on new data by the Mortgage Bankers Association, total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. is expected to rise to $576 billion in 2024, which is a 29 percent increase from 2023's estimated total of $444 billion.
Multifamily lending alone (which is included in the total figures) is expected to rise to $339 billion this year - a 25 percent increase from last year's estimate of $271 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending next year will increase to $717 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $404 billion of that total in multifamily lending.
"2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Head of Commercial Real Estate Research. "As the markets reset - on interest rates, property values, some property fundamentals and other factors - those volumes should pick up marginally. While up from last year's levels, we still expect borrowing and lending in 2024 to be below what was seen going back to 2017."
Woodwell continued, "Commercial mortgage originations have historically followed property prices, and the uncertainty about the future path of interest rates has been a contributing factor to the current slowdown. If interest rates and cap rates were to fall, that should help boost values and promote borrowing. If they remain higher for longer, that will suppress activity. This uncertainty is a contributing factor in today's slowdown."