According to a new forecast released by the Mortgage Bankers Association, total U.S. commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to break $1 trillion for the first time in 2022, a 13 percent increase from 2021's estimated volume of $900 billion.
"2021 was a remarkable year for commercial real estate markets and we expect 2022 to continue that momentum," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President for Commercial Real Estate Research. "Commercial real estate lending volumes are closely tied to the values of the underlying properties. In 2021 those values rose by more than 20 percent, and those increases will fuel further demand for mortgage debt in the coming years. Continued increases in property incomes, and stability in the ways investors value those incomes, should also support solid demand for mortgage capital, even in the face of modest increases in interest rates."
MBA's commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast is updated this year to target total commercial real estate lending. In past years the forecast targeted lending by dedicated commercial/multifamily lenders, which excluded mortgages made by many smaller and midsized depositories. The lending volumes in this year's forecast incudes those institutions.
Multifamily lending alone (which is also included in the total figures above) is forecast to rise to $493 billion in 2022 - a new record and a 5 percent increase that surpasses last year's record total of $470 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending to remain high in 2023, with slightly more than $1.0 trillion of total commercial real estate lending and $474 billion in multifamily lending.