According to the New York State Association of Realtors, New York State's housing price bubble chatter has increased this summer, as market observers attempt to predict the next residential real estate shift.
NYSAR says it is too early to predict a change from higher prices and lower inventory, but the common markers that caused the last housing cool down are present. Wages are up, but not at the same pace as home prices, leading to the kind of affordability concerns that can cause fewer sales at lower prices. At the same time, demand is still outpacing what is available for sale in many markets.
New Listings were up 4.8 percent to 19,945. Pending Sales increased 4.3 percent to 12,823. Inventory shrank 4.4 percent to 72,015 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was up 9.6 percent to $285,000. Days on Market decreased 10.0 percent to 63 days. Months Supply of Inventory was down 4.5 percent to 6.4 months.
Consumer spending on home goods and renovations are up, and more people are entering the workforce. Employed people spending money is good for the housing market.
Meanwhile, GDP growth was 4.1 percent in the second quarter, the strongest showing since 2014. Housing starts are down, but that is more reflective of low supply than anything else. With a growing economy, solid lending practices and the potential for improved inventory from new listing and building activity, market balance is more likely than a bubble.
According to new U.S. housing market research by Zillow, the combination of rising home prices and interest rates creates a doubly challenging environment for would-be home buyers, making monthly mortgage payments on even modestly priced homes more of a financial burden.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes inched down 1.7 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 units after an upwardly revised June report. On a year-to-date basis, sales are up 7.2 percent from this time last year.
According to Transwestern's second-quarter 2018 national office market report, continued improvement in the U.S. office sector was due in large part to a strong jobs market with remarkably low overall unemployment of 3.9 percent, and a 1.6 percent annual growth rate in office-using employment.
According to CBRE's latest Manhattan Office MarketViews report for the second quarter of 2018, office leasing activity totaled 8.96 million sq. ft. in Q2 2018 and that year-to-date leasing activity totaled 15.36 million sq. ft., 12% higher than the same period last year.